Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2434 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2434 ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 332 ORD 20:54 → PHX 22:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2434 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHX 06:32	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	PHX 11:03	15%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	16%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 2822 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	PHX 12:26	20%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 455 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	PHX 15:19	20%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 16:02	PHX 17:53	21%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	23%	7%	0.7%	70%
AA 3079 American Flight history →	ORD 10:16	PHX 11:58	25%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	27%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 1384 American Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PHX 16:09	30%	9%	0.8%	34%
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	30%	9%	1.1%	55%
AA 3261 American Flight history →	ORD 17:19	PHX 19:04	31%	10%	0.8%	56%
AA 866 American Flight history →	ORD 18:51	PHX 20:36	32%	10%	0.9%	64%
AA 332 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	PHX 22:36	33%	9%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON