Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4478 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4478 ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2296 ORD 17:29 → PIT 20:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:20	PIT 11:07	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 4484 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:45	PIT 12:31	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	13%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:08	PIT 23:52	13%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 4569 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:45	PIT 21:30	14%	5%	0.8%	71%
UA 2771 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	PIT 13:14	14%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	16%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	19%	8%	0.6%	64%
AA 555 American Flight history →	ORD 12:30	PIT 15:09	20%	9%	0.9%	61%
UA 5584 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:46	PIT 18:35	26%	12%	0.9%	62%
AA 2296 American Flight history →	ORD 17:29	PIT 20:08	30%	15%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON