tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2672 United Flight history → ORD 10:38 PNS 13:07 13% 4% 0.5% 82%
AA 4023 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 11:57 PNS 14:24 14% 3% 0.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 2h 38m Denver DEN 10:20 → PNS 14:15UA 2185 8h 15m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 21m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 25m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 5h 28m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → PNS 18:23DL 3059 7h 03m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 3h 00m Houston IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01UA 497 7h 46m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:51 → DFW 19:28AA 2988 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA 5h 31m 68% 50%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690 48m Miami MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy 6h 00m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON