Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3453 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3453 ORD 09:30 → PVD 13:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1293 ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3453 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:30	PVD 13:01	7%	2%	0.8%	97%
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:29	PVD 16:59	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
UA 4703 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:45	PVD 14:25	13%	6%	0.7%	87%
UA 5442 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:50	PVD 21:33	19%	9%	0.8%	74%
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PVD 22:43	19%	8%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON