Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4488 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4488 ORD 08:00 → PWM 11:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:00	PWM 11:37	11%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:18	PWM 18:52	17%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	17%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:09	PWM 00:43	18%	4%	0.8%	65%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:08	PWM 21:41	22%	9%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON