Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2847 ORD 08:45 → RAP 10:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5331 ORD 21:30 → RAP 23:16 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2847 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	RAP 10:24	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 3766 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:40	RAP 11:14	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 3767 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:20	RAP 14:55	13%	4%	1.0%	90%
UA 5331 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:30	RAP 23:16	17%	11%	1.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON