Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4354 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2167 ORD 20:56 → RDU 23:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:18	RDU 11:38	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 4756 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:30	RDU 12:49	8%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 5926 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	RDU 10:08	12%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 4615 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:19	RDU 23:39	14%	6%	0.9%	80%
UA 5326 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:10	RDU 12:33	14%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 4518 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:59	RDU 19:23	14%	6%	1.1%	82%
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:30	RDU 17:46	16%	6%	1.2%	70%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 14:13	RDU 17:27	17%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	23%	7%	0.6%	53%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 20:56	RDU 23:59	30%	11%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON