Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4500 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4500 ORD 08:10 → RIC 11:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 6285 ORD 16:15 → RIC 19:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4500 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:10	RIC 11:30	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 3704 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:35	RIC 13:57	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 3523 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:30	RIC 17:49	13%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 4698 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:22	RIC 00:39	15%	5%	0.9%	50%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	RIC 21:27	20%	9%	0.7%	66%
AA 6285 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:15	RIC 19:31	22%	9%	1.1%	65%
UA 4427 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	RIC 11:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON