tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2243 United Flight history → ORD 20:30 RNO 23:03 23% 8% 0.7% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 38m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 8h 39m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:30 → LAX 13:09UA 1044 3h 03m Los Angeles LAX 16:12 → RNO 17:46UA 5722 · flown by SkyWest 9h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:12 → RNO 12:05AA 2418 9h 05m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911 7h 11m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 2h 50m Los Angeles LAX 21:10 → RNO 22:38UA 2238 8h 51m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 21:16 → RNO 22:38UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest 9h 12m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:35 → LAX 21:12DL 2298 47m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 56% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON