Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3425 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 3425 ORD 06:45 → ROC 09:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6438 ORD 17:14 → ROC 20:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3425 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:45	ROC 09:37	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 3775 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:05	ROC 11:00	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 3629 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:52	ROC 14:49	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4219 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:23	ROC 00:16	17%	4%	1.2%	75%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ROC 16:45	20%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:22	24%	7%	0.7%	63%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:14	ROC 20:12	26%	11%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON