Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1740 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1740 ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3238 ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1740 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	RSW 11:14	11%	3%	13.0%	93%
AA 2433 American Flight history →	ORD 06:50	RSW 10:45	13%	3%	16.2%	96%
UA 1102 United Flight history →	ORD 10:35	RSW 14:44	19%	7%	9.0%	92%worse than usual
UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	22%	10%	8.2%	71%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	ORD 12:41	RSW 16:34	30%	12%	16.4%	47%
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	RSW 23:29	31%	14%	12.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON