Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2428 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2428 ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 1466 ORD 19:59 → SAN 22:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2428 United Flight history →	ORD 07:01	SAN 09:29	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2484 American Flight history →	ORD 06:49	SAN 09:04	14%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:20	SAN 08:54	15%	2%	1.1%	75%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SAN 15:25	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	SAN 18:32	20%	7%	0.6%	67%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	ORD 20:05	SAN 22:34	21%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 2482 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	SAN 12:27	22%	6%	0.7%	72%
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	26%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 1160 American Flight history →	ORD 16:05	SAN 18:25	28%	9%	0.8%	53%
AA 2457 American Flight history →	ORD 21:10	SAN 23:26	30%	10%	0.8%	45%
AA 1924 American Flight history →	ORD 19:00	SAN 21:22	32%	9%	0.8%	60%
AS 1466 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 19:59	SAN 22:33	33%	7%	1.2%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	1h 01m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	6h 05m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	47m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 08m	88%	77%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434	1h 02m Phoenix	PHX 07:34 → SAN 08:51AA 2461	5h 51m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON