Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 490 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 490 ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 431 ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 490 United Flight history →	ORD 09:10	SAT 12:12	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2844 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SAT 16:29	14%	7%	0.6%	75%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:59	SAT 17:59	17%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 2486 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	SAT 12:50	19%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 1394 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SAT 22:57	23%	8%	0.6%	57%
AA 431 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	SAT 00:10	29%	10%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON