tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 08:45 SBA 11:25 18% 4% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434 3h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 8h 40m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:45 → LAX 19:16UA 600 3h 28m Los Angeles LAX 22:44 → SBA 23:44UA 4796 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413 1h 02m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 7h 45m 88% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:30 → SBA 11:47AA 2510 8h 47m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 8h 26m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 9h 19m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 7h 52m 80% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 57m San Francisco SFO 18:16 → SBA 19:43UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 75% 56%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:25 → PHX 16:09AA 1384 53m Phoenix PHX 17:02 → SBA 18:33AA 2515 6h 08m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON