Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 341 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 341 ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 583 ORD 18:42 → SEA 21:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	12%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 2523 American Flight history →	ORD 06:40	SEA 09:27	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 715 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:00	SEA 08:38	14%	2%	0.8%	81%
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 2520 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	SEA 13:19	22%	6%	0.7%	71%
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	22%	8%	0.6%	73%
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	22%	5%	0.7%	65%
AA 2524 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	SEA 14:27	24%	6%	0.7%	61%
UA 2820 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	SEA 22:58	26%	6%	0.6%	59%
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 13:01	SEA 15:42	26%	5%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 1459 American Flight history →	ORD 22:27	SEA 00:59	30%	8%	0.9%	48%
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:55	SEA 20:34	31%	8%	0.7%	60%
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	32%	7%	0.8%	68%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:02	SEA 10:37	33%	4%	0.7%	64%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 17:47	SEA 20:37	34%	10%	0.7%	44%
AS 329 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 20:20	SEA 23:04	34%	7%	1.1%	67%
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 17:42	SEA 20:21	39%	8%	0.8%	49%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 18:42	SEA 21:34	41%	8%	1.1%	41%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 29m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	6h 33m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	6h 33m	86%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON