Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1620 ORD 18:09 → SFO 20:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2543 American Flight history →	ORD 06:29	SFO 09:05	14%	5%	0.8%	84%
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	20%	7%	0.6%	63%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	SFO 11:38	21%	8%	0.7%	54%
UA 2251 United Flight history →	ORD 15:57	SFO 18:49	21%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	22%	10%	0.6%	66%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	23%	10%	0.6%	74%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	23%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 511 United Flight history →	ORD 16:30	SFO 19:24	25%	9%	0.6%	61%
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	26%	9%	0.6%	45%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	ORD 11:05	SFO 13:46	27%	10%	0.8%	41%
AA 1586 American Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SFO 11:27	27%	10%	0.8%	58%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	32%	11%	0.6%	48%
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	32%	13%	0.8%	70%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	ORD 21:20	SFO 00:02	35%	12%	0.8%	32%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SFO 20:56	39%	14%	0.8%	34%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	6h 42m	85%	71%
United Details →	ORD 12:40 → MSP 14:20UA 2749	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:20 → SFO 17:32UA 1367	6h 52m	85%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON