Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3800 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3800 ORD 08:16 → SGF 10:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 5296 ORD 15:59 → SGF 17:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3800 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:16	SGF 10:03	7%	2%	1.0%	97%
AA 3802 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:56	SGF 13:40	10%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:50	SGF 22:37	15%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	SGF 19:17	17%	7%	1.2%	72%
UA 5296 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:59	SGF 17:52	22%	10%	1.3%	71%
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON