tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 481 United Flight history → ORD 19:58 SJC 22:43 21% 7% 0.7% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413 2h 00m Portland PDX 11:45 → SJC 13:35AS 1632 8h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 7h 31m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 00m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:30 → IAH 08:18UA 2310 1h 42m Houston IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882 8h 33m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041 2h 18m Seattle SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 9h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 19m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 6h 50m 93% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 53m Portland PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon 7h 20m 72% 58%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533 50m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 6h 40m 71% 58%
DeltaDetails → ORD 14:02 → SLC 16:37DL 2249 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 58% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON