Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1996 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1996 ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3192 ORD 17:50 → SJU 23:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1996 United Flight history →	ORD 08:49	SJU 14:44	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 695 United Flight history →	ORD 14:38	SJU 20:34	19%	7%	0.7%	80%
F9 3346 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 00:44	SJU 06:44	20%	6%	1.5%	63%
AA 3192 American Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SJU 23:48	28%	10%	0.9%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 02m	96%	82%
American Details →	ORD 06:30 → CLT 09:37AA 1784	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	7h 20m	95%	77%
American Details →	ORD 06:10 → MIA 10:22AA 1380	55m Miami	MIA 11:17 → SJU 14:12AA 2584	7h 02m	87%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON