Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3133 ORD 19:38 → SLC 22:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	17%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 2616 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	SLC 12:35	17%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 1710 United Flight history →	ORD 20:10	SLC 22:48	22%	6%	0.6%	58%
DL 2249 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:02	SLC 16:37	26%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 2780 American Flight history →	ORD 13:33	SLC 16:03	26%	8%	0.7%	72%
DL 2376 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:40	SLC 22:11	31%	8%	0.6%	48%
AA 3133 American Flight history →	ORD 19:38	SLC 22:13	33%	10%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON