Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2145 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2145 ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1094 ORD 21:08 → SMF 23:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2145 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	SMF 11:51	11%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1828 United Flight history →	ORD 19:53	SMF 22:39	18%	7%	0.6%	62%
UA 1920 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	SMF 18:43	19%	8%	0.7%	64%
AA 2627 American Flight history →	ORD 11:43	SMF 14:10	21%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 1094 American Flight history →	ORD 21:08	SMF 23:34	31%	9%	0.7%	41%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	1h 18m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	6h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 31m	93%	81%
United Details →	ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526	59m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415	6h 25m	89%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON