Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 519 ORD 17:05 → SNA 19:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2679 American Flight history →	ORD 08:14	SNA 10:33	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1107 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:52	19%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 2640 American Flight history →	ORD 11:59	SNA 14:19	23%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 519 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	SNA 19:27	28%	6%	0.7%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	94%	86%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 07:37 → SNA 08:59AA 2660	5h 59m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081	6h 27m	85%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON