Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2287 at 11:10, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SRQ 15:12	17%	7%	17.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 14m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	6h 38m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 32m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09DL 2767	1h 19m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 33m	96%	67%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	6h 33m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	6h 30m	98%	67%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	49m Charlotte	CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693	4h 43m	91%	64%
American Details →	ORD 08:00 → CLT 11:08AA 3222	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 14:51 → SRQ 16:48AA 5627 · flown by PSA	7h 48m	98%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON