Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4104 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4104 ORD 07:04 → STL 08:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1004 ORD 23:00 → STL 00:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:04	STL 08:31	7%	2%	0.9%	96%
UA 5958 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:05	STL 08:39	10%	3%	0.9%	82%
UA 1355 United Flight history →	ORD 10:40	STL 12:11	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 4537 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:13	STL 17:46	15%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 3815 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:29	STL 13:52	16%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 2000 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	STL 15:46	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 2144 United Flight history →	ORD 19:55	STL 21:26	18%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:32	STL 12:57	21%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:59	STL 19:26	21%	6%	1.0%	60%
AA 1004 American Flight history →	ORD 23:00	STL 00:16	22%	7%	0.9%	58%
UA 4581 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:55	STL 14:23	20%	6%	4.2%	80%
UA 4613 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	STL 10:34	25%	13%	1.7%	75%
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4416 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:59	STL 17:27	37%	19%	3.9%	63%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON