tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Hailey on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5416 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 16:00 SUN 18:58 22% 8% 0.8% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest 7h 46m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363 3h 11m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → SUN 22:01UA 6043 · flown by SkyWest 10h 01m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:27UA 2373 1h 35m Los Angeles LAX 10:02 → SUN 13:16UA 5980 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 1h 36m San Francisco SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 88% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON