Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4044 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4044 ORD 07:09 → SYR 10:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 6398 ORD 16:46 → SYR 19:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4044 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:09	SYR 10:12	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 3819 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:23	SYR 16:26	13%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 3817 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:54	SYR 23:55	14%	5%	0.8%	77%
UA 2343 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	SYR 16:48	17%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SYR 21:08	21%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 6398 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:46	SYR 19:49	27%	13%	1.1%	49%
UA 4541 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	SYR 10:48	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON