Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2326 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 353 ORD 20:29 → TPA 00:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:31	TPA 11:24	8%	2%	17.1%	91%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	12%	4%	17.1%	83%
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	TPA 12:56	15%	4%	16.6%	79%
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	19%	6%	17.1%	76%
AA 2768 American Flight history →	ORD 13:36	TPA 17:25	25%	8%	17.2%	66%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 17:56	TPA 21:49	28%	8%	12.8%	69%
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	TPA 00:19	30%	10%	15.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON