Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4135 ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 6028 ORD 12:51 → TUL 15:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4135 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:40	TUL 11:44	11%	2%	1.2%	90%
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	13%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:05	TUL 00:06	14%	4%	1.3%	75%
AA 3827 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:00	TUL 19:06	15%	5%	1.4%	77%
UA 1658 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	TUL 23:25	16%	6%	0.6%	40%
UA 6028 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:51	TUL 15:02	16%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON