Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2867 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2867 ORD 10:00 → TUS 11:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2661 ORD 20:59 → TUS 22:42 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2867 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	TUS 11:45	23%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 5719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	TUS 22:11	30%	10%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	TUS 22:42	36%	11%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON