Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4190 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4190 ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 6380 ORD 16:59 → TVC 19:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4190 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:35	TVC 11:57	13%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 3572 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	TVC 23:54	17%	6%	1.4%	61%
AA 3772 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:55	TVC 16:17	17%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 3910 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:40	TVC 00:01	18%	5%	0.9%	78%
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 10:45	TVC 13:13	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
UA 5341 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	TVC 11:37	20%	6%	1.5%	80%
AA 6379 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:55	TVC 14:18	21%	7%	1.6%	75%
UA 6033 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:45	TVC 15:10	24%	10%	1.5%	63%
UA 2790 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	TVC 20:19	26%	11%	0.8%	62%
UA 5504 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:05	TVC 16:31	27%	11%	1.4%	53%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	TVC 17:57	27%	12%	1.4%	55%
AA 6380 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:59	TVC 19:22	28%	13%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON