Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6445 ORD 08:15 → TYS 11:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 5823 ORD 14:00 → TYS 17:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6445 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:15	TYS 11:05	12%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 5014 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:40	TYS 12:30	14%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 3783 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:13	TYS 18:02	15%	5%	1.0%	52%
UA 6037 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:30	TYS 13:19	15%	7%	0.8%	76%
UA 2827 United Flight history →	ORD 17:55	TYS 20:44	18%	10%	0.8%	67%
AA 5001 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:09	TYS 21:58	20%	11%	1.0%	67%
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:00	TYS 17:00	20%	9%	0.9%	71%
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON