Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4153 at 08:29, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4153 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:29	VPS 11:01	11%	2%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 59m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	6h 43m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	5h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 08:03 → ATL 11:06DL 2426	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	5h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	6h 36m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	7h 05m	98%	83%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02AA 2671	6h 55m	99%	82%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690	50m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 00m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON