Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3839 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3839 ORD 06:46 → XNA 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5767 ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3839 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:46	XNA 08:44	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 5407 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:40	XNA 10:39	11%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 3848 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:45	XNA 13:41	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 3960 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	XNA 00:26	14%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 3846 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:59	XNA 19:00	14%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 4105 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:00	XNA 21:00	15%	7%	0.8%	70%
UA 5689 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:55	XNA 17:57	18%	9%	1.2%	69%
UA 5767 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:30	XNA 23:31	18%	7%	1.2%	62%
UA 4431 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:29	XNA 14:21	24%	10%	1.4%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON