tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3182 at 11:25, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3182 Southwest Flight history → ORF 11:25 BNA 12:15 16% 3% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 23m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 24m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 26m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 10m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00WN 3183 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 35m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → BNA 09:49AA 5083 · flown by PSA 5h 48m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → ORD 07:29UA 5690 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 29m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:51AA 3221 5h 28m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → EWR 07:39UA 3712 · flown by Republic 3h 16m Newark EWR 10:55 → BNA 12:18UA 1616 7h 18m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ORF 15:40 → DEN 17:35WN 1037 50m Denver DEN 18:25 → BNA 22:05WN 1488 7h 25m 61% 43%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:31 → PHL 16:50AA 5859 · flown by Piedmont 54m Philadelphia PHL 17:44 → BNA 19:04AA 5580 · flown by PSA 4h 33m 58% 41%
DeltaDetails → ORF 14:44 → LGA 16:21DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m New York LGA 17:27 → BNA 19:19DL 5002 · flown by Endeavor 5h 37m 68% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON