tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5809 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5809 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → ORF 11:55 BOS 13:48 13% 4% 0.8% 94%
B6 1814 JetBlue Flight history → ORF 18:00 BOS 19:43 37% 17% 0.8% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00WN 3183 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 08:15 → BOS 09:50WN 884 3h 50m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 2h 53m Dulles IAD 10:00 → BOS 11:52UA 3552 · flown by Republic 5h 47m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → BOS 11:08AA 1533 6h 07m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432 5h 51m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → ORD 07:29UA 5690 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Chicago ORD 09:15 → BOS 12:57UA 1117 6h 57m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 7h 27m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Washington DCA 09:41 → BOS 11:25AA 4691 · flown by Republic 5h 25m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:29AA 4693 · flown by Republic 3h 01m New York LGA 10:30 → BOS 11:53AA 4367 · flown by Republic 5h 53m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 17:22 → PHL 18:48AA 4749 · flown by Republic 53m Philadelphia PHL 19:41 → BOS 21:12AA 3327 3h 50m 71% 52%
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:07 → JFK 13:44DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor 46m New York JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic 4h 01m 59% 48%
DeltaDetails → ORF 19:21 → LGA 20:56DL 5348 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m New York LGA 21:59 → BOS 23:31DL 2801 4h 10m 43% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON