Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3183 ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1665 ORF 18:10 → BWI 19:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3183 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 06:00	BWI 07:00	4%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 4904 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 09:55	BWI 10:55	7%	2%	0.7%	82%
WN 3185 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 12:15	BWI 13:20	10%	2%	0.7%	85%
WN 2848 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 16:30	BWI 17:35	21%	5%	0.8%	58%
WN 1665 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 18:10	BWI 19:15	24%	5%	0.8%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON