Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3168 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3168 ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest AA 2913 ORF 20:20 → CLT 21:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3168 American Flight history →	ORF 05:01	CLT 06:19	5%	3%	0.8%	99%
AA 5036 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:46	CLT 08:20	12%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 5331 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:24	CLT 12:55	17%	5%	1.0%	66%
AA 2254 American Flight history →	ORF 13:27	CLT 14:49	19%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 2255 American Flight history →	ORF 14:29	CLT 15:57	20%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 5339 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 18:24	CLT 20:02	21%	7%	1.2%	60%
AA 2913 American Flight history →	ORF 20:20	CLT 21:50	26%	7%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON