Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2270 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2270 ORF 08:00 → DEN 10:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1037 ORF 15:40 → DEN 17:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2270 United Flight history →	ORF 08:00	DEN 10:00	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1390 United Flight history →	ORF 16:21	DEN 18:20	22%	7%	0.6%	46%
WN 1037 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 15:40	DEN 17:35	26%	5%	0.9%	48%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	50m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 44m	90%	76%
Southwest Details →	ORF 11:25 → BNA 12:15WN 3182	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 13:25 → DEN 15:10WN 503	5h 45m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON