Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2274 ORF 07:03 → DFW 09:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2265 ORF 18:56 → DFW 21:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	10%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 2262 American Flight history →	ORF 15:17	DFW 17:41	20%	10%	1.0%	68%
AA 2265 American Flight history →	ORF 18:56	DFW 21:19	26%	9%	1.2%	42%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	46m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → DFW 08:54DL 839	4h 39m	85%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON