Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1079 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1079 ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1621 ORF 17:06 → DTW 18:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1079 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:05	DTW 07:55	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1621 Delta Flight history →	ORF 17:06	DTW 18:59	22%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 4653 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:37	DTW 14:43	40%	23%	2.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON