Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3712 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 3712 ORF 06:00 → EWR 07:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 3654 ORF 17:44 → EWR 19:42 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3712 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 06:00	EWR 07:39	6%	2%	1.4%	87%
UA 3508 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 10:17	EWR 11:59	11%	3%	1.5%	81%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 20:15	EWR 21:56	31%	8%	2.7%	72%
UA 3654 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:44	EWR 19:42	32%	7%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON