tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1799 at 06:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1799 JetBlue Flight history → ORF 06:00 FLL 08:18 13% 7% 1.2% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094 4h 44m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 13m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 02m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00WN 3183 2h 50m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 6h 20m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 03m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:15 → IAH 08:20UA 2302 1h 40m Houston IAH 10:00 → FLL 13:47UA 2234 7h 32m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 3h 05m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → FLL 13:38AA 695 7h 15m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 27m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168 56m Charlotte CLT 07:15 → FLL 09:16AA 1865 4h 15m 90% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor 1h 13m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 6h 23m 69% 49%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 16:30 → BWI 17:35WN 2848 50m Baltimore BWI 18:25 → FLL 21:15WN 4735 4h 45m 71% 48%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:44 → EWR 19:42UA 3654 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Newark EWR 20:44 → FLL 23:59UA 1897 6h 15m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON