tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2302 at 06:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2302 United Flight history → ORF 06:15 IAH 08:20 10% 3% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 33m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 5h 54m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → ORD 07:29UA 5690 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Chicago ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638 8h 23m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORF 16:21 → DEN 18:20UA 1390 2h 50m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 9h 20m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → EWR 07:39UA 3712 · flown by Republic 3h 14m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 59m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168 1h 23m Charlotte CLT 07:42 → IAH 09:25AA 1930 5h 24m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:00 → ORD 18:41UA 5334 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 8h 34m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 33m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 6122 · flown by Piedmont 53m Philadelphia PHL 13:02 → IAH 15:47AA 1925 5h 53m 74% 61%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:44 → EWR 19:42UA 3654 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 6h 59m 73% 54%
AmericanDetails → ORF 17:42 → DCA 18:55AA 5338 · flown by PSA 1h 01m Washington DCA 19:56 → IAH 22:14AA 5222 · flown by PSA 5h 32m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON