Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4359 ORF 17:39 → JFK 19:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 5856 ORF 18:40 → JFK 20:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4359 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:39	JFK 19:14	19%	6%	1.2%	78%
DL 5856 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 18:40	JFK 20:25	20%	7%	1.3%	68%
DL 5356 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 07:00	JFK 08:20	14%	6%	4.0%	86%
DL 5370 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:07	JFK 13:44	27%	8%	2.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON