Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2834 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2834 ORF 07:05 → MDW 08:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1039 ORF 19:15 → MDW 20:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2834 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 07:05	MDW 08:10	7%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 3187 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 15:30	MDW 16:35	23%	4%	0.8%	33%
WN 1039 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 19:15	MDW 20:20	27%	5%	0.8%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON