tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 756 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 756 American Flight history → ORF 06:00 MIA 08:24 11% 4% 1.5% 90%
AA 801 American Flight history → ORF 19:59 MIA 22:20 37% 11% 2.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 42m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 36m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00WN 3183 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278 5h 00m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 1h 21m Washington DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 5h 17m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 42m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 23m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 2h 20m Philadelphia PHL 10:00 → MIA 12:59AA 796 6h 36m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor 1h 16m Detroit DTW 15:59 → MIA 19:18DL 866 6h 41m 71% 49%
AmericanDetails → ORF 20:20 → CLT 21:50AA 2913 49m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596 4h 26m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON