Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5464 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 07:22	MSP 09:29	15%	10%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	6h 03m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 11m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	ORF 07:05 → MDW 08:10WN 2834	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869	5h 40m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 49m	95%	87%
United Details →	ORF 10:45 → IAD 11:48UA 2066	1h 32m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 26m	96%	86%
American Details →	ORF 05:01 → CLT 06:19AA 3168	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 08:25 → MSP 10:04AA 2154	6h 03m	96%	86%
United Details →	ORF 06:00 → ORD 07:29UA 5690 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805	5h 36m	95%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 17:42 → DCA 18:55AA 5338 · flown by PSA	1h 11m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON