Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4683 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4683 ORF 06:40 → ORD 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4164 ORF 18:46 → ORD 20:32 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4683 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 06:40	ORD 08:20	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
UA 5690 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORF 06:00	ORD 07:29	11%	5%	0.9%	68%
UA 5901 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORF 10:48	ORD 12:27	15%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:58	ORD 13:31	15%	5%	1.0%	83%
UA 5334 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORF 17:00	ORD 18:41	23%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 18:46	ORD 20:32	29%	7%	1.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON