Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5271 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5271 ORF 07:11 → PHL 08:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 4749 ORF 17:22 → PHL 18:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5271 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 07:11	PHL 08:27	11%	6%	1.1%	76%
AA 5088 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:23	PHL 07:40	11%	6%	1.1%	85%
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:22	PHL 18:48	23%	8%	1.1%	69%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 10:54	PHL 12:09	22%	6%	0.0%	78%
AA 6121 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:26	PHL 13:43	25%	12%	4.2%	75%
AA 5859 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 15:31	PHL 16:50	38%	14%	4.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON