tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 929 at 16:13, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 929 JetBlue Flight history → ORF 16:13 SJU 19:35 34% 10% 1.2% 83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ORF 06:00 → BWI 07:00WN 3183 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 08:10 → SJU 12:25WN 4443 6h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → SJU 11:40DL 1757 6h 25m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 12m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:00 → ORD 07:29UA 5690 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 8h 44m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → MIA 08:24AA 756 2h 53m Miami MIA 11:17 → SJU 14:12AA 2584 8h 12m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:15 → IAH 08:20UA 2302 1h 43m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 27m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ORF 18:10 → BWI 19:15WN 1665 55m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → SJU 00:20 +1WN 1104 6h 10m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON